Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 130,313
2 South Dakota 125,815
3 Rhode Island 116,244
4 Utah 114,391
5 Arizona 111,042
6 Tennessee 110,066
7 Oklahoma 105,978
8 Iowa 105,430
9 Wisconsin 105,151
10 Arkansas 104,550
11 Nebraska 103,060
12 Kansas 100,919
13 Alabama 99,291
14 South Carolina 97,917
15 Indiana 97,847
16 Mississippi 97,653
17 Idaho 94,696
18 Nevada 94,484
19 Wyoming 92,948
20 Illinois 92,907
21 Montana 92,422
22 Louisiana 91,244
23 Georgia 90,483
24 Kentucky 89,745
25 Texas 89,675
26 California 89,376
27 New Mexico 87,174
28 Delaware 87,014
29 Florida 87,009
30 New Jersey 86,285
31 Minnesota 84,953
32 Missouri 83,594
33 Massachusetts 82,594
34 New York 81,832
35 Ohio 81,594
36 North Carolina 80,720
37 Alaska 77,888
38 Connecticut 76,600
39 Colorado 73,489
40 West Virginia 72,324
41 Pennsylvania 71,721
42 Virginia 66,090
43 Michigan 63,701
44 Maryland 62,281
45 District of Columbia 56,178
46 New Hampshire 53,991
47 Washington 44,248
48 Puerto Rico 41,550
49 Oregon 36,232
50 Maine 32,358
51 Vermont 23,226
52 Hawaii 19,122

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 South Carolina 589
2 New York 394
3 Kentucky 309
4 Delaware 301
5 New Jersey 298
6 Florida 295
7 North Carolina 270
8 Georgia 268
9 Massachusetts 256
10 New Hampshire 248
11 Oklahoma 242
12 Utah 242
13 Virginia 242
14 Kansas 234
15 Arizona 233
16 Texas 205
17 Pennsylvania 185
18 Vermont 183
19 Ohio 181
20 Colorado 180
21 Montana 177
22 Alabama 168
23 Tennessee 168
24 Louisiana 167
25 New Mexico 166
26 Indiana 165
27 District of Columbia 163
28 South Dakota 163
29 Minnesota 162
30 West Virginia 159
31 California 156
32 Wyoming 152
33 Nebraska 151
34 Illinois 147
35 Maryland 131
36 Wisconsin 125
37 Mississippi 123
38 Iowa 120
39 Arkansas 118
40 Nevada 113
41 Connecticut 112
42 North Dakota 106
43 Maine 100
44 Alaska 96
45 Rhode Island 89
46 Oregon 87
47 Missouri 84
48 Idaho 83
49 Michigan 74
50 Washington 70
51 Puerto Rico 60
52 Hawaii 39

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,573
2 New York 2,382
3 Massachusetts 2,296
4 Rhode Island 2,242
5 Mississippi 2,201
6 Arizona 2,130
7 Connecticut 2,110
8 South Dakota 2,105
9 Louisiana 2,036
10 Alabama 1,956
11 North Dakota 1,926
12 Pennsylvania 1,846
13 Indiana 1,837
14 Arkansas 1,775
15 Illinois 1,772
16 New Mexico 1,729
17 Iowa 1,691
18 Michigan 1,635
19 South Carolina 1,616
20 Tennessee 1,616
21 Kansas 1,583
22 Nevada 1,581
23 Georgia 1,529
24 Texas 1,459
25 Ohio 1,438
26 District of Columbia 1,409
27 Delaware 1,403
28 Florida 1,392
29 Missouri 1,328
30 Maryland 1,276
31 West Virginia 1,261
32 Montana 1,256
33 California 1,248
34 Wisconsin 1,180
35 Minnesota 1,152
36 Wyoming 1,143
37 Nebraska 1,121
38 Oklahoma 1,056
39 North Carolina 1,044
40 Colorado 1,039
41 Kentucky 1,030
42 Idaho 1,023
43 Virginia 858
44 New Hampshire 848
45 Washington 641
46 Puerto Rico 619
47 Utah 577
48 Oregon 511
49 Maine 489
50 Alaska 380
51 Vermont 315
52 Hawaii 302

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Delaware 14
2 Alabama 11
3 Georgia 10
4 Kansas 10
5 South Carolina 10
6 Arizona 9
7 Virginia 9
8 California 8
9 Nevada 7
10 Florida 6
11 Massachusetts 6
12 New Mexico 6
13 New York 6
14 South Dakota 6
15 Texas 6
16 New Jersey 5
17 Ohio 5
18 Oklahoma 5
19 Illinois 4
20 Indiana 4
21 Kentucky 4
22 Louisiana 4
23 North Carolina 4
24 Pennsylvania 4
25 Puerto Rico 4
26 Utah 4
27 West Virginia 4
28 Arkansas 3
29 Missouri 3
30 Nebraska 3
31 Tennessee 3
32 Wisconsin 3
33 Connecticut 2
34 Maryland 2
35 Michigan 2
36 Mississippi 2
37 Rhode Island 2
38 Vermont 2
39 Colorado 1
40 District of Columbia 1
41 Iowa 1
42 Minnesota 1
43 Montana 1
44 North Dakota 1
45 Alaska 0
46 Hawaii 0
47 Idaho 0
48 Maine 0
49 New Hampshire 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 323,214 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 278,628 2 99
Bent Colorado 263,403 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 240,172 4 99
Lake Tennessee 238,170 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 127,485 230 92
Richland South Carolina 97,102 1131 64
York South Carolina 91,010 1395 55
Orange California 81,653 1853 41
Pierce Washington 41,519 2903 7

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 8,346 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 2 99
Foard Texas 6,926 3 99
Iron Wisconsin 6,858 4 99
Galax city Virginia 6,775 5 99
Orange California 1,200 1935 38
Davidson Tennessee 1,196 1944 38
Richland South Carolina 1,174 1967 37
York South Carolina 1,121 2043 34
Pierce Washington 582 2695 14

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons